2016 · Week 10

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

20·26

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

WAS -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

+2.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.118
  • 42.5%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.202
  • -0.253EPA / rush-0.033
  • 7.1%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +3.80CPOE+4.99
  • 38.4%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.32
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS
2011 · W16MIN @ WAS33–26MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–WAS
MINQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:231068Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 9:04833Punt0–7
WASQ1 4:16991Touchdown0–14
MINQ2 14:18825Punt0–14
WASQ2 10:0030Punt0–14
MINQ2 9:31867Touchdown7–14
WASQ2 5:39522Punt7–14
MINQ2 3:38775Touchdown14–14
WASQ2 0:5817Turnover14–14
MINQ2 0:50433Touchdown20–14
WASQ3 15:001160Field goal20–17
MINQ3 8:5339Punt20–17
WASQ3 5:541049Field goal20–20
MINQ3 0:38518Punt20–20
WASQ4 12:54660Field goal20–23
MINQ4 9:33934Turnover20–23
WASQ4 5:44732Field goal20–26
MINQ4 2:311233Turnover on downs20–26
WASQ4 0:0400End of half20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford31/4030721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon6162.70
Matt Asiata9131.41
Adam Thielen11111.00
Ronnie Hillman420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs13151640
Kyle Rudolph58691
Adam Thielen34211
Cordarrelle Patterson34170
Jerick McKinnon34170
Jarius Wright1190
Rhett Ellison2280
Matt Asiata1120

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/3326220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rob Kelley22974.40
Chris Thompson4256.30
Jamison Crowder177.00
Kirk Cousins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon610810
Vernon Davis33661
Jordan Reed24410
Jamison Crowder46371
Maurice Harris33280
Chris Thompson33110
Ryan Grant0300
Rob Kelley11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.75