2016 · Week 10
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.118
- 42.5%Success rate48.2%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.253EPA / rush-0.033
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.6%
- +3.80CPOE+4.99
- 38.4%Third-down rate44.9%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
- 1.65Points / drive2.32
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 31/40 | 307 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 13 | 15 | 164 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/33 | 262 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Kelley | 22 | 97 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 3 | 66 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Maurice Harris | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.75