2014 · Week 9

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

26·29

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapVikings
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.034
  • 41.7%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.061
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.13CPOE-2.18
  • 31.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.59
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS
2011 · W16MIN @ WAS33–26MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–MIN
MINQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
WASQ1 14:051262Field goal3–0
MINQ1 6:16831Punt3–0
WASQ1 2:08786Touchdown10–0
MINQ2 14:4667Punt10–0
WASQ2 11:27616Punt10–0
MINQ2 8:52826Punt10–0
WASQ2 4:1931Punt10–0
MINQ2 3:27937Turnover on downs10–0
WASQ2 1:0410Turnover10–0
MINQ2 0:59446Touchdown10–7
WASQ2 0:3600End of half10–7
WASQ3 15:003-8Punt10–7
MINQ3 12:59641Touchdown10–14
WASQ3 10:44743Touchdown17–14
MINQ3 7:2339Punt17–14
WASQ3 5:23838Field goal20–14
MINQ3 1:571076Touchdown20–21
WASQ4 13:00882Touchdown26–21
MINQ4 9:011273Touchdown26–29
WASQ4 3:27928Turnover on downs26–29
MINQ4 1:0537Punt26–29
WASQ4 0:0610End of half26–29

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III18/2825111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris19924.82
Robert Griffin III7243.40
Roy Helu362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson471201
Roy Helu45460
Andre Roberts25180
Niles Paul22180
Alfred Morris23170
Jordan Reed11170
Pierre Garcon35150

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater26/4226810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon14543.90
Matt Asiata10262.63
Teddy Bridgewater3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings610760
Chase Ford57661
Matt Asiata45310
Rhett Ellison44300
Jarius Wright24290
Jerick McKinnon34140
Charles D. Johnson11130
Cordarrelle Patterson1790

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.90