2014 · Week 9
Final
TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.034
- 41.7%Success rate42.2%
- -0.031EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.061
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.13CPOE-2.18
- 31.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.39Points / drive1.59
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 18/28 | 251 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Robert Griffin III | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 7 | 120 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 26/42 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 3 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 5 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.90