2019 · Week 8
Final
U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
MIN -16.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.056
- 38.8%Success rate42.1%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- -2.94CPOE+3.53
- 29.0%Third-down rate44.0%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 1.49Points / drive2.31
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 12/16 | 130 | 0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 3/5 | 33 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 14 | 76 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Hale Hentges | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/26 | 285 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 7 | 143 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.56