2019 · Week 8

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Case Keenum

9·19

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -16.5

Total

42

Model margin

+5.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapVikings
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.056
  • 38.8%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -2.94CPOE+3.53
  • 29.0%Third-down rate44.0%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 1.49Points / drive2.31
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS
2011 · W16MIN @ WAS33–26MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–MIN
MINQ1 15:00550Turnover0–0
WASQ1 12:24631Turnover0–0
MINQ1 8:57714Field goal0–3
WASQ1 5:201353Field goal3–3
MINQ2 14:001074Field goal3–6
WASQ2 7:261063Field goal6–6
MINQ2 1:57775Touchdown6–13
WASQ2 0:0700End of half6–13
WASQ3 15:0037Punt6–13
MINQ3 13:231071Field goal6–16
WASQ3 8:33550Field goal9–16
MINQ3 5:11519Turnover on downs9–16
WASQ3 2:4124Turnover9–16
MINQ3 1:591254Field goal9–19
WASQ4 10:363-3Punt9–19
MINQ4 8:421677Turnover on downs9–19
WASQ4 0:26111End of half9–19

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum12/1613000
Dwayne Haskins3/53301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson14765.40
Wendell Smallwood294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin46390
Paul Richardson34340
Adrian Peterson22270
Trey Quinn13150
Hale Hentges11130
Jeremy Sprinkle22120
Kelvin Harmon11120
Wendell Smallwood12110

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins23/2628500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook23984.31
Alexander Mattison13614.70
Kirk Cousins221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs771430
Dalvin Cook56730
Bisi Johnson22270
Irv Smith33210
Kyle Rudolph33170
Alexander Mattison2230
Laquon Treadwell1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +16.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.56