2022 · Week 9
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.066
- 45.8%Success rate40.9%
- +0.070EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.092
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.66CPOE-1.41
- 40.7%Third-down rate34.9%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.04Points / drive1.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/40 | 265 | 2 | 1 |
| Nick Mullens | 1/1 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 17 | 47 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 13 | 115 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 9 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 15/28 | 149 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Armani Rogers | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.08