2017 · Week 10

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

38·30

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

43

Model margin

-2.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.051
  • 42.5%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.203
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +3.66CPOE+1.00
  • 44.3%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.61
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS
2011 · W16MIN @ WAS33–26MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–WAS
WASQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 10:57575Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 8:18314Punt7–7
MINQ1 6:0333Punt7–7
WASQ1 4:411037Field goal7–10
MINQ1 0:08975Touchdown14–10
WASQ2 11:451470Touchdown14–17
MINQ2 4:37671Touchdown21–17
WASQ2 1:4910Turnover21–17
MINQ2 1:38323Touchdown28–17
WASQ2 0:2200End of half28–17
MINQ3 15:00672Touchdown35–17
WASQ3 12:221069Field goal35–20
MINQ3 8:241046Turnover35–20
WASQ3 3:29748Turnover on downs35–20
MINQ3 0:2920Turnover35–20
WASQ4 14:5322Touchdown35–27
MINQ4 14:471240Field goal38–27
WASQ4 7:45839Turnover on downs38–27
MINQ4 4:4433Punt38–27
WASQ4 3:431241Field goal38–30
MINQ4 1:1400End of half38–30

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum21/2930442

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray17684.01
Jerick McKinnon10323.20
Case Keenum3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen8121661
Stefon Diggs45781
Kyle Rudolph57370
Jerick McKinnon22150
Jarius Wright1171
David Morgan1111
Laquon Treadwell0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins26/4532711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine9353.90
Chris Thompson9262.90
Rob Kelley4102.50
Kirk Cousins451.32
Jamison Crowder155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis711760
Jamison Crowder411760
Maurice Harris23501
Chris Thompson37410
Josh Doctson47300
Ryan Grant33250
Samaje Perine11250
Rob Kelley2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.2%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-2.17