2017 · Week 10
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
43
Model margin
-2.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.051
- 42.5%Success rate40.8%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.203
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.1%
- +3.66CPOE+1.00
- 44.3%Third-down rate32.5%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.02Points / drive1.61
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 21/29 | 304 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 12 | 166 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 5 | 78 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| David Morgan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 26/45 | 327 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 7 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 2 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-2.17