2012 · Week 6

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

26·38

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

MIN -1.5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.137
  • 42.1%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.233
  • -0.013EPA / rush+0.030
  • 9.7%Explosive rate12.8%
  • -2.66CPOE+4.84
  • 37.4%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.11
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2011 · W16MIN @ WAS33–26MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–WAS
MINQ1 15:00878Field goal3–0
WASQ1 11:3130Punt3–0
MINQ1 9:34744Field goal6–0
WASQ1 6:1837Turnover6–0
MINQ1 5:33626Field goal9–0
WASQ1 1:471258Field goal9–3
MINQ2 10:5139Punt9–3
WASQ2 9:031390Touchdown9–10
MINQ2 2:271-7Turnover9–16
WASQ2 2:2016Touchdown9–17
MINQ2 2:14612Punt9–17
WASQ2 0:3900End of half9–17
WASQ3 15:001072Touchdown9–24
MINQ3 9:371139Field goal12–24
WASQ3 4:18844Punt12–24
MINQ3 0:11518Opp touchdown12–31
MINQ4 12:401080Touchdown20–31
WASQ4 8:0236Punt20–31
MINQ4 6:18940Touchdown26–31
WASQ4 3:36380Touchdown26–38
MINQ4 2:431782Turnover26–38
WASQ4 0:2200End of half26–38

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder35/5235222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson17794.60
Christian Ponder4133.30
Percy Harvin210.50
Toby Gerhart111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin11141330
Michael Jenkins610671
Kyle Rudolph611561
Adrian Peterson78500
Rhett Ellison12160
Devin Aromashodu12130
Toby Gerhart23100
John Carlson1270

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III17/2218211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Griffin III1313810.62
Alfred Morris16472.91
Evan Royster100.00
Brandon Banks2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss44460
Fred Davis34460
Josh Morgan34420
Leonard Hankerson23230
Alfred Morris1290
Evan Royster1170
Brandon Banks2230
Dezmon Briscoe0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.80