2012 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
MIN -1.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.137
- 42.1%Success rate46.7%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.233
- -0.013EPA / rush+0.030
- 9.7%Explosive rate12.8%
- -2.66CPOE+4.84
- 37.4%Third-down rate35.5%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 1.91Points / drive2.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 35/52 | 352 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 11 | 14 | 133 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 6 | 10 | 67 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 6 | 11 | 56 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 17/22 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 13 | 138 | 10.6 | 2 |
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.80