Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
35
Model margin
-0.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.086
- 43.0%Success rate37.6%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.118
- 6.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- +2.38CPOE-5.37
- 44.6%Third-down rate32.7%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.74Points / drive1.35
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 24/33 | 319 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Blaylock | 19 | 36 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/38 | 223 | 0 | 2 |
| Vince Young | 3/4 | 27 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 2 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.21