Closing spread
SD -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:19 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:57 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:24 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:57 | 4 | -7 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 12:28 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| LV | Q2 5:36 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LAC | Q2 1:51 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 13–0 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LV | Q3 13:20 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LAC | Q3 11:25 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LV | Q3 9:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LAC | Q3 8:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LV | Q3 6:12 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LAC | Q3 5:16 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LV | Q3 0:53 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LAC | Q4 14:44 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 20–0 |
| LV | Q4 9:56 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 20–0 |
| LAC | Q4 8:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–0 |
| LV | Q4 6:40 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 20–0 |
| LAC | Q4 6:08 | 3 | 9 | Touchdown | 27–0 |
| LV | Q4 4:34 | 10 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 27–0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.