Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
44
Model margin
+0.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.112
- 40.2%Success rate42.6%
- -0.031EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.242
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.93CPOE+0.25
- 37.5%Third-down rate33.0%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.49Points / drive1.48
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 25/30 | 210 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 19 | 51 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 21/37 | 229 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Calhoun | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.59