2006 · Week 1

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

9·6

Lions

Detroit

QB Jon Kitna

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

SEA -6

Total

44

Model margin

+0.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapLions
  • -0.075EPA / play-0.112
  • 40.2%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.242
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.93CPOE+0.25
  • 37.5%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.48
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4SEA @ DET29–42DET
2023 · W2SEA @ DET37–31SEA
2022 · W4SEA @ DET48–45SEA
2021 · W17DET @ SEA29–51SEA
2018 · W8SEA @ DET28–14SEA
2016 · playoffsDET @ SEA6–26SEA
2015 · W4DET @ SEA10–13SEA
2012 · W8SEA @ DET24–28DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DET
SEAQ1 15:00544Missed field goal0–0
DETQ1 12:40942Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 8:00415Turnover0–3
DETQ1 5:50420Punt0–3
SEAQ1 3:431054Missed field goal0–3
DETQ2 12:2824Turnover0–3
SEAQ2 11:471040Field goal3–3
DETQ2 5:59917Punt3–3
SEAQ2 1:29628Field goal6–3
DETQ3 15:00517Punt6–3
SEAQ3 12:5034Punt6–3
DETQ3 10:541032Punt6–3
SEAQ3 5:26423Punt6–3
DETQ3 3:0330Punt6–3
SEAQ3 2:3540Punt6–3
DETQ3 0:17551Missed field goal6–3
SEAQ4 14:10513Punt6–3
DETQ4 11:501052Field goal6–6
SEAQ4 7:053-13Punt6–6
DETQ4 4:52416Punt6–6
SEAQ4 3:13756Field goal9–6

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck25/3021000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander19512.70
Maurice Morris3237.70
Matt Hasselbeck3155.00

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna21/3722900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Jones14352.50
Eddie Drummond144.00
Brian Calhoun2-1-0.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.59