Closing spread
ARI -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.045
- 39.6%Success rate42.0%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- -0.50CPOE-3.07
- 33.3%Third-down rate39.4%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.43Points / drive1.52
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 23/40 | 288 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 23/37 | 301 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 73 | 2.8 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.37