Closing spread
ARI -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.045
- 39.6%Success rate42.0%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- -0.50CPOE-3.07
- 33.3%Third-down rate39.4%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.43Points / drive1.52
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 89 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:45 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q1 7:52 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:58 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SF | Q1 5:51 | 3 | 18 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q1 4:13 | 6 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| SF | Q1 0:59 | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| ARI | Q2 13:34 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 14–21 |
| SF | Q2 11:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–21 |
| ARI | Q2 10:25 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| SF | Q2 4:42 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q2 2:35 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 14–24 |
| SF | Q2 1:05 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q2 0:26 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–24 |
| SF | Q3 13:49 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q3 10:46 | 5 | 5 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| SF | Q3 8:27 | 2 | 7 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| ARI | Q3 7:41 | 11 | 91 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| SF | Q3 2:19 | 9 | 66 | Missed field goal | 21–31 |
| ARI | Q4 12:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 21–31 |
| SF | Q4 10:21 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 24–31 |
| ARI | Q4 8:52 | 13 | 78 | Field goal | 24–34 |
| SF | Q4 1:50 | 5 | 59 | Field goal | 27–34 |
| ARI | Q4 0:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–34 |
| SF | Q4 0:31 | 3 | 25 | End of half | 27–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 23/40 | 288 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 23/37 | 301 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 73 | 2.8 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.37