Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.075
- 42.0%Success rate40.2%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.07CPOE-1.93
- 39.4%Third-down rate37.5%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.52Points / drive1.49
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 10:43 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 8:35 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q1 4:51 | 8 | 35 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q1 1:27 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q1 0:04 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q2 15:00 | 12 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q2 10:37 | 6 | -8 | Punt | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q2 7:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q2 5:58 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q2 4:20 | 4 | 32 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q2 2:28 | 10 | 63 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q3 10:36 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q3 9:35 | 4 | 22 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q3 7:02 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 3–14 |
| ARI | Q3 4:48 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q3 3:55 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q4 14:22 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q4 11:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| ARI | Q4 11:12 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q4 9:45 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 10–21 |
| ARI | Q4 5:30 | 6 | -2 | Punt | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q4 2:46 | 3 | 16 | End of half | 10–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 24/38 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 64 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 12/27 | 221 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 26 | 89 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.87