Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.075
- 42.0%Success rate40.2%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.07CPOE-1.93
- 39.4%Third-down rate37.5%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.52Points / drive1.49
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 24/38 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 64 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 12/27 | 221 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 26 | 89 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.87