Closing spread
MIN -2
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.151
- 41.2%Success rate39.3%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.174
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.31CPOE+1.13
- 31.1%Third-down rate33.2%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
- 1.29Points / drive0.99
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/33 | 181 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 74 | 5.7 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Carter | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 19/31 | 243 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Longwell | 1/1 | 16 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 24 | 113 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.69