2006 · Week 2

Final / OT

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

13·16

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brad Johnson

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -2

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapVikings
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.151
  • 41.2%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback-0.174
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.31CPOE+1.13
  • 31.1%Third-down rate33.2%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
  • 1.29Points / drive0.99
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–MIN
MINQ1 15:001268Field goal0–3
CARQ1 8:28620Punt0–3
MINQ1 4:51412Punt0–3
CARQ1 2:3632Punt0–3
MINQ1 1:3235Punt0–3
CARQ1 0:16662Field goal3–3
MINQ2 12:1239Punt3–3
CARQ2 10:2332Punt3–3
MINQ2 9:18761Field goal3–6
CARQ2 5:251383Touchdown10–6
MINQ2 0:1700End of half10–6
CARQ3 15:004-5Punt10–6
MINQ3 12:49939Missed field goal10–6
CARQ3 7:00747Field goal13–6
MINQ3 2:51518Punt13–6
CARQ3 0:083-4Punt13–6
MINQ4 13:4110Turnover13–6
CARQ4 13:3138Punt13–6
MINQ4 11:123-9Punt13–6
MINQ4 9:50421Touchdown13–13
CARQ4 7:48618Punt13–13
MINQ4 5:08749Punt13–13
CARQ4 2:31423Punt13–13
MINQ4 1:45417Punt13–13
CARQ4 0:3010End of half13–13
CAROT515Punt13–13
MINOT976Field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme17/3318100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams13745.71
DeShaun Foster13262.00
Drew Carter177.00

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson19/3124301
Ryan Longwell1/11610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chester Taylor241134.70
Mewelde Moore11111.00
Brad Johnson341.30
Artose Pinner122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.69