Closing spread
CIN -10.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.197EPA / play+0.044
- 38.3%Success rate45.3%
- -0.178EPA / dropback+0.138
- -0.231EPA / rush-0.085
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.75CPOE+5.38
- 34.0%Third-down rate36.8%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.01Points / drive1.98
- 4.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 20/33 | 244 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/40 | 352 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 26 | 145 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tab Perry | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.21