Closing spread
CIN -10.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.197EPA / play+0.044
- 38.3%Success rate45.3%
- -0.178EPA / dropback+0.138
- -0.231EPA / rush-0.085
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.75CPOE+5.38
- 34.0%Third-down rate36.8%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.01Points / drive1.98
- 4.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 12:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 10:23 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 10:14 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CIN | Q1 8:50 | 14 | 96 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| CLE | Q1 3:09 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q1 0:03 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CLE | Q2 12:18 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q2 11:24 | 6 | 48 | Missed field goal | 3–14 |
| CLE | Q2 7:51 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q2 4:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CLE | Q2 2:59 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q2 1:54 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CIN | Q3 12:56 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CLE | Q3 11:04 | 6 | 37 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| CIN | Q3 7:38 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CLE | Q3 6:13 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CIN | Q3 3:12 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| CLE | Q4 14:11 | 3 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| CIN | Q4 13:06 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| CLE | Q4 9:50 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| CIN | Q4 9:32 | 4 | 26 | Touchdown | 10–34 |
| CLE | Q4 7:08 | 8 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 10–34 |
| CIN | Q4 3:36 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 10–34 |
| CLE | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 17–34 |
| CIN | Q4 0:58 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 20/33 | 244 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/40 | 352 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 26 | 145 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tab Perry | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.21