Closing spread
IND -12.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.153
- 43.2%Success rate51.4%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.043
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.14CPOE+4.70
- 38.7%Third-down rate56.7%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.41Points / drive2.54
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 22/26 | 219 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Wali Lundy | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/38 | 400 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Ran Carthon | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.32