Closing spread
IND -12.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.153
- 43.2%Success rate51.4%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.043
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.14CPOE+4.70
- 38.7%Third-down rate56.7%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.41Points / drive2.54
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 2 | -8 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 14:15 | 3 | 16 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 12:48 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 10:48 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q1 8:17 | 9 | 37 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| IND | Q1 3:12 | 11 | 69 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q2 11:58 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–14 |
| IND | Q2 9:18 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| HOU | Q2 6:02 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| IND | Q2 1:54 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 87 | Touchdown | 3–27 |
| HOU | Q3 8:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–27 |
| IND | Q3 6:24 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 3–30 |
| HOU | Q3 3:17 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–30 |
| IND | Q3 1:36 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–30 |
| HOU | Q4 14:11 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–30 |
| IND | Q4 11:36 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–37 |
| HOU | Q4 7:56 | 6 | 53 | Touchdown | 17–37 |
| IND | Q4 5:12 | 9 | 55 | Touchdown | 17–43 |
| HOU | Q4 2:28 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 24–43 |
| IND | Q4 0:45 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–43 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 22/26 | 219 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Wali Lundy | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/38 | 400 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Ran Carthon | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.32