Closing spread
DEN -11
Total
38
Model margin
+2.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.045
- 41.1%Success rate40.7%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.028
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.07CPOE-2.37
- 41.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.66Points / drive1.52
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 17/23 | 133 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 27 | 126 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/30 | 173 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Johnson | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.57