2006 · Week 2 · Division

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

30·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

42

Model margin

+4.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.055
  • 45.6%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback+0.117
  • -0.017EPA / rush-0.049
  • 9.6%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -3.95CPOE-1.03
  • 38.8%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 62.8%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.67
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
NYGQ1 15:00767Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 11:351192Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 7:09523Punt7–7
PHIQ1 3:41532Punt7–7
NYGQ1 2:163-11Punt7–7
PHIQ1 0:24579Touchdown7–14
NYGQ2 12:4743Punt7–14
PHIQ2 10:33820Missed field goal7–14
NYGQ2 6:39414Punt7–14
PHIQ2 4:141051Turnover on downs7–14
NYGQ2 1:063-9Punt7–14
PHIQ2 0:38535Field goal7–17
NYGQ2 0:0500End of half7–17
PHIQ3 15:00769Touchdown7–24
NYGQ3 10:49614Punt7–24
PHIQ3 7:40628Punt7–24
NYGQ3 3:591072Touchdown14–24
PHIQ4 13:403-5Punt14–24
NYGQ4 11:5648Turnover14–24
PHIQ4 10:2549Turnover on downs14–24
NYGQ4 8:45625Punt14–24
PHIQ4 6:08422Turnover14–24
NYGQ4 4:11433Touchdown21–24
PHIQ4 3:28622Punt21–24
NYGQ4 0:58448Field goal24–24
PHIQ4 0:0700End of half24–24
NYGOT717Punt24–24
PHIOT3-3Punt24–24
NYGOT13100Touchdown30–24

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning31/4337131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber21512.40
Brandon Jacobs5357.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer1291372
Plaxico Burress661141
Tiki Barber710570
Tim Carter12220
Jeremy Shockey21170
Visanthe Shiancoe1190
Sinorice Moss1140

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb27/4535020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook19683.61
Donovan McNabb4317.80
Correll Buckhalter661.00
Thomas Tapeh122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
L.J. Smith7111110
Donte' Stallworth58811
Brian Westbrook78560
Greg Lewis22250
Reggie Brown11231
Matt Schobel12110
Thomas Tapeh2490

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.26