Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
42
Model margin
+4.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.055
- 45.6%Success rate43.0%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.117
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.049
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.1%
- -3.95CPOE-1.03
- 38.8%Third-down rate42.8%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.77Points / drive1.67
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 31/43 | 371 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 21 | 51 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 12 | 9 | 137 | 2 |
| Plaxico Burress | 6 | 6 | 114 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 7 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Sinorice Moss | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 27/45 | 350 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.J. Smith | 7 | 11 | 111 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 5 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 7 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Matt Schobel | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.26