Closing spread
BAL -13
Total
34
Model margin
+5.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 16/33 | 143 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 1 |
| Musa Smith | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.64
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.