Closing spread
BAL -13
Total
34
Model margin
+5.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 10:38 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 9:04 | 4 | 20 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 6:41 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q1 6:32 | 6 | 11 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| LV | Q1 3:45 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–9 |
| BAL | Q1 1:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LV | Q1 0:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–9 |
| BAL | Q2 13:21 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LV | Q2 12:09 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–9 |
| BAL | Q2 11:07 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LV | Q2 9:32 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| BAL | Q2 2:59 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 3–16 |
| LV | Q2 0:43 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 3–16 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 3–16 |
| BAL | Q3 13:05 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 3–16 |
| LV | Q3 11:48 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 3–16 |
| BAL | Q3 10:47 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–16 |
| LV | Q3 9:42 | 3 | -4 | Safety | 3–18 |
| BAL | Q3 8:53 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–18 |
| LV | Q3 5:26 | 9 | 57 | Turnover | 3–18 |
| BAL | Q3 0:53 | 6 | 11 | Field goal | 3–21 |
| LV | Q4 13:21 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| BAL | Q4 13:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| LV | Q4 12:56 | 8 | 3 | Field goal | 6–21 |
| BAL | Q4 9:55 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 6–21 |
| LV | Q4 5:57 | 9 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 6–21 |
| BAL | Q4 4:15 | 6 | 91 | Touchdown | 6–28 |
| LV | Q4 1:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–28 |
| BAL | Q4 1:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 16/33 | 143 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 1 |
| Musa Smith | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.64
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.