2024 · Week 2

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Gardner Minshew

26·23

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -9

Total

41

Model margin

+7.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapRavens
  • -0.131EPA / play+0.199
  • 41.0%Success rate49.4%
  • -0.058EPA / dropback+0.328
  • -0.283EPA / rush+0.053
  • 7.2%Explosive rate12.0%
  • -1.46CPOE+4.67
  • 34.2%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.80
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 7–5 since 1999

RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W1BAL @ LV27–33RAIDERS
2018 · W12OAK @ BAL17–34BAL
2017 · W5BAL @ OAK30–17BAL
2016 · W4OAK @ BAL28–27RAIDERS
2015 · W2BAL @ OAK33–37RAIDERS
2012 · W10OAK @ BAL20–55BAL
2009 · W17BAL @ OAK21–13BAL
2008 · W8OAK @ BAL10–29BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–BAL
LVQ1 15:003-8Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:39625Field goal0–3
LVQ1 8:29610Punt0–3
BALQ1 4:1931Punt0–3
LVQ1 2:1336Punt0–3
BALQ1 0:4033Punt0–3
LVQ2 14:06737Field goal3–3
BALQ2 9:19745Field goal3–6
LVQ2 6:0022Turnover3–6
BALQ2 5:03639Missed field goal3–6
LVQ2 2:255-3Field goal6–6
BALQ2 1:37861Field goal6–9
LVQ2 0:0300End of half6–9
BALQ3 15:00670Touchdown6–16
LVQ3 11:42745Turnover on downs6–16
BALQ3 7:36319Turnover6–16
LVQ3 6:08746Touchdown13–16
BALQ3 2:361180Touchdown13–23
LVQ4 12:11749Field goal16–23
BALQ4 9:2135Punt16–23
LVQ4 7:361054Touchdown23–23
BALQ4 3:543-6Punt23–23
LVQ4 2:21523Field goal26–23
BALQ4 0:27416Turnover on downs26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew30/3827611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zamir White9242.70
DJ Turner122.00
Ameer Abdullah210.50
Alexander Mattison410.31
Gardner Minshew1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams9121101
Brock Bowers99980
Jakobi Meyers45290
Zamir White34140
Tre Tucker22130
Michael Mayer11110
Ameer Abdullah2210
Harrison Bryant0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson21/3424711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry18844.71
Lamar Jackson5459.00
Justice Hill4225.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers711911
Mark Andrews45510
Rashod Bateman34400
Isaiah Likely23260
Nelson Agholor13130
Derrick Henry11120
Justice Hill22100
Charlie Kolar1140
Patrick Ricard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +95.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+7.28