Closing spread
BAL -9
Total
41
Model margin
+7.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.199
- 41.0%Success rate49.4%
- -0.058EPA / dropback+0.328
- -0.283EPA / rush+0.053
- 7.2%Explosive rate12.0%
- -1.46CPOE+4.67
- 34.2%Third-down rate47.9%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
- 1.51Points / drive2.80
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 30/38 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 9 | 12 | 110 | 1 |
| Brock Bowers | 9 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/34 | 247 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 11 | 91 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+7.28