Closing spread
BAL -10
Total
39
Model margin
+0.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Ravens
- QuestionableCary WilliamsCBThigh· Full
- QuestionableDerrick MasonWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableEd ReedSGroin· Limited
- QuestionableOniel CousinsTKnee· Full
- QuestionableTavares GoodenLBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableTerrell SuggsLBThigh· Limited
- ProbableJared GaitherTFoot· Full
- ProbableJarret JohnsonLBBack· Full
- ProbableTrevor PryceDEIllness· Full
Raiders
- OutBruce GradkowskiQBknees· DNP
- DoubtfulJustin FargasRBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulLangston WalkerTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableChris JohnsonCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableDarrius Heyward-BeyWRFoot· Full
- QuestionableGreg EllisDEKnee· Full
- QuestionableTyvon BranchSHip· Limited
- ProbableGerard WarrenDTShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 10:55 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:57 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 7:05 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:47 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q2 14:49 | 9 | 19 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 9:09 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q2 4:27 | 2 | 95 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| LV | Q2 3:54 | 9 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| BAL | Q2 0:47 | 4 | 29 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LV | Q3 13:24 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 14–10 |
| BAL | Q3 9:58 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:27 | 8 | 36 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| BAL | Q3 4:06 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LV | Q3 2:27 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| BAL | Q3 0:17 | 5 | 22 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| LV | Q4 13:16 | 7 | 55 | Turnover | 21–13 |
| BAL | Q4 9:32 | 10 | 44 | Missed field goal | 21–13 |
| LV | Q4 3:43 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–13 |
| BAL | Q4 2:54 | 3 | 42 | End of half | 21–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 11/19 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 167 | 10.4 | 3 |
| Ray Rice | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.