Closing spread
BAL -10
Total
39
Model margin
+0.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 11/19 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 167 | 10.4 | 3 |
| Ray Rice | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.