Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/33 | 341 | 3 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Pitta | 5 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 6 | 67 | 2 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 59 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Anthony Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.