2012 · Week 10

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Carson Palmer

20·55

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 61°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -9.5

Total

48

Model margin

+2.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

BAL lead 7–5 since 1999

RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2LV @ BAL26–23RAIDERS
2021 · W1BAL @ LV27–33RAIDERS
2018 · W12OAK @ BAL17–34BAL
2017 · W5BAL @ OAK30–17BAL
2016 · W4OAK @ BAL28–27RAIDERS
2015 · W2BAL @ OAK33–37RAIDERS
2009 · W17BAL @ OAK21–13BAL
2008 · W8OAK @ BAL10–29BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–BAL
LVQ1 15:00732Turnover on downs0–0
BALQ1 11:53517Field goal0–3
LVQ1 8:4938Punt0–3
BALQ1 7:11863Touchdown0–10
LVQ1 3:15735Punt0–10
BALQ2 14:22510Turnover0–10
LVQ2 12:27521Field goal3–10
BALQ2 10:02680Touchdown3–17
LVQ2 7:49627Turnover3–17
BALQ2 6:08711Field goal3–20
LVQ2 3:16780Touchdown10–20
BALQ2 1:37780Touchdown10–27
LVQ2 0:241-3End of half10–27
BALQ3 15:00355Touchdown10–34
LVQ3 13:42780Touchdown17–34
BALQ3 10:3132Punt17–40
BALQ3 9:27120Touchdown17–41
LVQ3 9:2030Punt17–41
BALQ3 8:44954Touchdown17–48
LVQ3 5:4033Punt17–48
BALQ3 4:35416Punt17–48
LVQ3 2:33961Field goal20–54
BALQ4 12:4700Touchdown20–55
LVQ4 12:341164Turnover20–55
BALQ4 7:313-1Punt20–55
LVQ4 5:5936Punt20–55
BALQ4 3:5537Punt20–55
LVQ4 1:5038End of half20–55

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/3334131
Tyrod Taylor0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice13352.71
Bernard Pierce10232.30
Jacoby Jones166.00
Joe Flacco111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Pitta55671
Torrey Smith26672
Ed Dickson22590
Jacoby Jones23540
Anquan Boldin47380
Ray Rice45330
Tandon Doss13260
Anthony Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.18

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.