Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutAustin HowardTAnkle· DNP
- OutMenelik WatsonTCalf· DNP
- OutNate AllenSQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableMatt McCantsTKnee· Full
- QuestionableRodney HudsonCKnee· Full
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBKnee· Limited
Ravens
- DoubtfulKenneth DixonRBKnee· Full
- DoubtfulRonnie StanleyTFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulSheldon PriceCBThigh· DNP
- QuestionableAlex LewisTConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableDevin HesterWRThigh· Limited
- QuestionableElvis DumervilLBFoot· Full
- QuestionableJohn UrschelGShoulder· Full
- QuestionableKamar AikenWRThigh· Full
- QuestionableTimmy JerniganDTKnee· Full
- DNPJeremy ZuttahCNot Injury Related
- DNPMarshal YandaGNot Injury Related
- DNPSteve SmithWRNot Injury Related
- DNPTerrell SuggsLBNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Ravens
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:16 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:23 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 8:58 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:46 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 2:37 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:32 | 1 | 6 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q1 1:25 | 8 | 42 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 12:51 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q2 11:01 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 8:09 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| BAL | Q2 4:09 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LV | Q2 3:05 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 14–3 |
| BAL | Q2 1:37 | 8 | 63 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| LV | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–6 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 14–6 |
| LV | Q3 10:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–6 |
| BAL | Q3 9:41 | 14 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–12 |
| LV | Q3 2:41 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–12 |
| BAL | Q3 1:14 | 4 | 6 | Turnover | 14–12 |
| LV | Q4 14:48 | 8 | 40 | Touchdown | 21–12 |
| BAL | Q4 11:11 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 21–12 |
| LV | Q4 8:08 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–18 |
| BAL | Q4 6:38 | 1 | 52 | Touchdown | 21–19 |
| LV | Q4 6:27 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 21–19 |
| BAL | Q4 5:35 | 4 | 17 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| LV | Q4 3:36 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 28–27 |
| BAL | Q4 2:12 | 8 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 28–27 |
| LV | Q4 0:43 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 32/52 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 21 | 113 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 8 | 11 | 111 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.