Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 32/52 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 21 | 113 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 8 | 11 | 111 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.