2021 · Week 1

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

27·33

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

LV perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapRaiders
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.001
  • 46.3%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.161
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +0.31CPOE+1.92
  • 36.5%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.87
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 7–5 since 1999

RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. LV are 6-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2LV @ BAL26–23RAIDERS
2018 · W12OAK @ BAL17–34BAL
2017 · W5BAL @ OAK30–17BAL
2016 · W4OAK @ BAL28–27RAIDERS
2015 · W2BAL @ OAK33–37RAIDERS
2012 · W10OAK @ BAL20–55BAL
2009 · W17BAL @ OAK21–13BAL
2008 · W8OAK @ BAL10–29BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–LV
LVQ1 15:001057Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:29829Punt0–0
LVQ1 5:1430Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:46665Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 1:47413Punt7–0
BALQ1 0:0833Punt7–0
LVQ2 14:093-5Punt7–0
BALQ2 11:30672Touchdown14–0
LVQ2 8:521066Touchdown14–7
BALQ2 4:14739Turnover on downs14–7
LVQ2 1:12933Field goal14–10
BALQ3 15:00614Punt14–10
LVQ3 13:1044Punt14–10
BALQ3 10:48516Field goal17–10
LVQ3 8:241045Turnover on downs17–10
BALQ3 3:22522Punt17–10
LVQ4 14:4938Punt17–10
BALQ4 13:23319Turnover17–10
LVQ4 11:54541Touchdown17–17
BALQ4 9:18675Touchdown24–17
LVQ4 6:041085Touchdown24–24
BALQ4 3:44746Field goal27–24
LVQ4 0:37238Field goal27–27
BALQ4 0:0200End of half27–27
LVOT974Turnover27–27
BALOT57Turnover27–27
LVOT232Touchdown27–33

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson19/3023510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson12867.20
Ty'Son Williams9657.21
Latavius Murray10282.81
Trenton Cannon252.50
Marquise Brown155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins48960
Marquise Brown66691
Ty'Son Williams34290
Mark Andrews35200
Patrick Ricard23150
Devin Duvernay1260
Josh Oliver0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr34/5643521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs10343.42
Marcus Mariota13131.00
Kenyan Drake6111.80
Derek Carr461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller10191051
Bryan Edwards45810
Hunter Renfrow69700
Kenyan Drake55590
Zay Jones22461
Henry Ruggs III25460
Josh Jacobs1260
Willie Snead0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.54