Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
LV perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.001
- 46.3%Success rate45.2%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.31CPOE+1.92
- 36.5%Third-down rate36.8%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.93Points / drive1.87
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. LV are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/30 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12 | 86 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Trenton Cannon | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 8 | 96 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 34/56 | 435 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 10 | 19 | 105 | 1 |
| Bryan Edwards | 4 | 5 | 81 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 6 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 2 | 46 | 1 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 2 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.54