Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Ravens
- OutBrandon WilliamsDTFoot· DNP
- OutMaxx WilliamsTEAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulJaylen HillCBThigh· Limited
- QuestionableAnthony LevineSThigh· Full
- QuestionableBenjamin WatsonTECalf· Full
- QuestionableJeremy MaclinWRHand· Full
- QuestionableJimmy SmithCBAchilles· Full
- QuestionableLardarius WebbSThigh· Full
- DNPTerrell SuggsLBNot Injury Related
Raiders
- QuestionableDavid AmersonCBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableDeAndre WashingtonRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableDerek CarrQBBack· Limited
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGFoot· Limited
- QuestionableGareon ConleyCBShin· Limited
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:45 | 3 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:10 | 11 | 61 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| BAL | Q1 5:07 | 15 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:57 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| BAL | Q2 9:11 | 8 | 66 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| LV | Q2 5:18 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 24–10 |
| BAL | Q2 2:37 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:28 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 24–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 24–10 |
| BAL | Q3 14:02 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LV | Q3 11:53 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 24–10 |
| BAL | Q3 9:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:28 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| BAL | Q3 3:46 | 11 | 72 | Field goal | 27–17 |
| LV | Q4 13:10 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 27–17 |
| BAL | Q4 8:50 | 12 | 54 | Field goal | 30–17 |
| LV | Q4 2:24 | 5 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 30–17 |
| BAL | Q4 1:57 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 19/26 | 222 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javorius Allen | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Vince Mayle | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 3 | 133 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 4 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.