Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 19/26 | 222 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javorius Allen | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Vince Mayle | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 3 | 133 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 4 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.