Closing spread
BAL -13
Total
42
Model margin
+1.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutMartavis BryantWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJordy NelsonWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableLeon HallCBBack· DNP
- LimitedDaryl WorleyCBShoulder
- LimitedDoug MartinRBAnkle
- LimitedFrostee RuckerDENeck
- LimitedGareon ConleyCBGroin
- LimitedKelechi OsemeleGKnee
- LimitedKolton MillerTKnee
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Ravens
- OutJames HurstGBack· DNP
- OutJoe FlaccoQBHip· DNP
- QuestionableAlex CollinsRBFoot· Full
- QuestionableAlex LewisGShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony LevineLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTavon YoungCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableTim WilliamsLBAnkle· Limited
- DNPBrandon CarrCBNot Injury Related
- DNPJimmy SmithCBNot Injury Related
- DNPTerrell SuggsLBNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Ravens
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q1 8:45 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 4:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q1 4:02 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 0:43 | 7 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 12:45 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BAL | Q2 10:16 | 5 | 82 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| LV | Q2 7:11 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–13 |
| BAL | Q2 5:47 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| LV | Q2 5:31 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| BAL | Q2 2:34 | 7 | 47 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| LV | Q2 1:00 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| LV | Q3 8:10 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| BAL | Q3 5:09 | 17 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| LV | Q4 11:16 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–27 |
| BAL | Q4 10:26 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 17–27 |
| LV | Q4 8:15 | 5 | 18 | Opp touchdown | 17–34 |
| LV | Q4 5:55 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 17–34 |
| BAL | Q4 3:47 | 5 | 62 | End of half | 17–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/25 | 178 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 23 | 118 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 1 | 74 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.28
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.