Closing spread
BAL -13
Total
42
Model margin
+1.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BAL are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/25 | 178 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 23 | 118 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 1 | 74 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.28
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.