Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
42
Model margin
+4.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Ravens
- OutBreshad PerrimanWRKnee· DNP
- OutEugene MonroeTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableDarren WallerWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRashaan MelvinCBThigh· Limited
- ProbableChris CantyDENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableDaryl SmithLBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableJustin ForsettRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableLorenzo TaliaferroRBKnee· Full
- ProbableTimmy JerniganDTKnee· Full
Raiders
- OutBenson MayowaDEKnee· DNP
- OutJamize OlawaleRBAnkle· DNP
- OutJustin EllisDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableCharles WoodsonSShoulder· Limited
- ProbableDerek CarrQBright Hand· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 12:49 | 1 | 6 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 12:42 | 4 | 2 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q1 11:44 | 9 | 62 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q1 7:41 | 8 | 52 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q1 2:59 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 15:00 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| BAL | Q2 12:52 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| LV | Q2 7:44 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| BAL | Q2 2:00 | 13 | 78 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–20 |
| LV | Q3 12:55 | 10 | 33 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| BAL | Q3 8:44 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 20–23 |
| LV | Q3 6:36 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| BAL | Q3 2:12 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 23–30 |
| LV | Q4 13:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 23–30 |
| BAL | Q4 12:33 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 30–30 |
| LV | Q4 7:03 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 30–30 |
| BAL | Q4 4:54 | 7 | 24 | Field goal | 33–30 |
| LV | Q4 2:10 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 33–37 |
| BAL | Q4 0:26 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 33–37 |
| LV | Q4 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 33–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 32/45 | 384 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 10 | 16 | 150 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 5 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 5 | 6 | 88 | 2 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.