Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
42
Model margin
+4.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 32/45 | 384 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 10 | 16 | 150 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 5 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 5 | 6 | 88 | 2 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.