2006 · Week 2

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

0·9

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.011
  • 43.1%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.085EPA / rush+0.053
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +1.04CPOE+0.26
  • 43.2%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 48.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.59
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/3214102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker11201.80
Ben Roethlisberger100.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich26/3926001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor22924.20
Alvin Pearman11010.00
Byron Leftwich540.80
Maurice Jones-Drew242.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.50
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.91