Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.011
- 43.1%Success rate42.5%
- +0.069EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.085EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.6%
- +1.04CPOE+0.26
- 43.2%Third-down rate39.0%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.68Points / drive1.59
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:53 | 10 | 42 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 5:16 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 2:39 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 14:43 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 10:57 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 7:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 5:13 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 2:03 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 0:48 | 4 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q3 13:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q3 10:53 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q3 5:24 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q3 3:37 | 9 | 48 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q4 13:26 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q4 10:36 | 9 | 78 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q4 6:15 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| JAX | Q4 4:53 | 4 | 10 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| PIT | Q4 4:26 | 5 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 0–9 |
| JAX | Q4 3:25 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–9 |
| PIT | Q4 2:13 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–9 |
| JAX | Q4 1:42 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/32 | 141 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 26/39 | 260 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 92 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.50
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.91