Closing spread
SD -12
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 7/19 | 106 | 1 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 6/19 | 57 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.43
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.