Closing spread
SD -12
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 12:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:37 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 6:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 4:58 | 14 | 85 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q2 13:14 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 11:41 | 5 | 26 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| TEN | Q2 9:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 8:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–17 |
| TEN | Q2 6:36 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 4:07 | 9 | 62 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| TEN | Q2 0:17 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 0–20 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q3 13:18 | 12 | 59 | Field goal | 0–23 |
| TEN | Q3 6:55 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 0–23 |
| LAC | Q3 5:54 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 0–26 |
| TEN | Q3 3:44 | 9 | 31 | Turnover | 0–26 |
| LAC | Q3 0:10 | 6 | 49 | Touchdown | 0–33 |
| TEN | Q4 12:15 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 0–33 |
| LAC | Q4 10:51 | 5 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 0–33 |
| TEN | Q4 7:59 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–33 |
| LAC | Q4 3:09 | 3 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–40 |
| TEN | Q4 1:53 | 10 | 64 | End of half | 7–40 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 7/19 | 106 | 1 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 6/19 | 57 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.43
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.