Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.023
- 41.4%Success rate40.9%
- +0.018EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.078
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.84CPOE+0.48
- 38.3%Third-down rate34.1%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 1.75Points / drive1.57
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 3-9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 27/41 | 305 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kelley | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Dotson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 10 | 111 | 2 |
| Mike Williams | 8 | 13 | 83 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Elijah Dotson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/24 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 25 | 80 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | 3 | 4 | 76 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 49 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47