2023 · Week 2

Final / OT

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

24·27

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapTitans
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.023
  • 41.4%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.078
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.84CPOE+0.48
  • 38.3%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 54.8%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.57
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 12–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 3-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9LAC @ TEN27–20CHARGERS
2024 · W10TEN @ LAC17–27CHARGERS
2022 · W15TEN @ LAC14–17CHARGERS
2019 · W7LAC @ TEN20–23TEN
2018 · W7TEN @ LAC19–20CHARGERS
2016 · W9TEN @ SD35–43CHARGERS
2013 · W3SD @ TEN17–20TEN
2012 · W2TEN @ SD10–38CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–TEN
LACQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:20923Turnover on downs0–0
LACQ1 8:111039Field goal3–0
TENQ1 3:463-3Punt3–0
LACQ1 1:42520Punt3–0
TENQ2 14:053-12Punt3–0
LACQ2 11:50833Touchdown11–0
TENQ2 8:16375Touchdown11–7
LACQ2 7:09663Field goal14–7
TENQ2 4:23860Field goal14–10
TENQ3 15:001153Touchdown14–17
LACQ3 10:08517Punt14–17
TENQ3 7:00824Punt14–17
LACQ3 2:39889Touchdown21–17
TENQ4 14:3838Punt21–17
LACQ4 12:2538Punt21–17
TENQ4 11:0130Punt21–17
LACQ4 8:44618Punt21–17
TENQ4 6:00775Touchdown21–24
LACQ4 2:221055Field goal24–24
LACOT30Punt24–24
TENOT738Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert27/4130520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joshua Kelley13393.00
Derius Davis11010.00
Elijah Dotson461.50
Mike Williams133.00
Isaiah Spiller133.00
Justin Herbert100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen8101112
Mike Williams813830
Gerald Everett33470
Stone Smartt11240
Josh Palmer35130
Elijah Dotson22130
Donald Parham1270
Quentin Johnston1270
Joshua Kelley0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/2424610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry25803.21
Tyjae Spears8496.10
Ryan Tannehill11212.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Treylon Burks34760
Chris Moore11490
DeAndre Hopkins45400
Chig Okonkwo44350
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine33251
Derrick Henry34150
Tyjae Spears2260
Trevon Wesco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.47