Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.007
- 41.2%Success rate44.1%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.057
- 8.9%Explosive rate6.9%
- -0.94CPOE+1.13
- 37.1%Third-down rate43.5%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.46Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LAC are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 15/22 | 165 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Willis | 3/4 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 104 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Racey McMath | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 28/42 | 313 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.48