Closing spread
LAC -10
Total
44.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.148
- 43.6%Success rate37.9%
- +0.021EPA / dropback-0.165
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.01CPOE-3.50
- 46.7%Third-down rate32.0%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.10Points / drive1.36
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 3-9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 19/29 | 250 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Jaret Patterson | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden II | 5 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 12/21 | 145 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elic Ayomanor | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.6%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-3.16