2025 · Week 9

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

27·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

LAC -10

Total

44.5

Model margin

-3.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapTitans
  • -0.016EPA / play-0.148
  • 43.6%Success rate37.9%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback-0.165
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.117
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.01CPOE-3.50
  • 46.7%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 48.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.36
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 12–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 3-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10TEN @ LAC17–27CHARGERS
2023 · W2LAC @ TEN24–27TEN
2022 · W15TEN @ LAC14–17CHARGERS
2019 · W7LAC @ TEN20–23TEN
2018 · W7TEN @ LAC19–20CHARGERS
2016 · W9TEN @ SD35–43CHARGERS
2013 · W3SD @ TEN17–20TEN
2012 · W2TEN @ SD10–38CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–TEN
TENQ1 15:00632Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:0325Opp touchdown0–7
LACQ1 11:19761Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 7:24624Punt7–7
LACQ1 4:403-5Opp touchdown7–14
LACQ1 2:55856Field goal10–14
TENQ2 14:0649Punt10–14
LACQ2 12:04670Touchdown17–14
TENQ2 8:37544Field goal17–17
LACQ2 5:023-9Punt17–17
TENQ2 3:523-1Punt17–17
LACQ2 2:23540Field goal20–17
TENQ2 0:202-8End of half20–17
LACQ3 15:0038Punt20–17
TENQ3 13:141171Turnover on downs20–17
LACQ3 7:0115104Touchdown27–17
TENQ4 12:583-5Punt27–17
LACQ4 10:513-17Punt27–17
TENQ4 8:32740Field goal27–20
LACQ4 4:19931End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert19/2925021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert9576.31
Jaret Patterson9444.90
Kimani Vidal12302.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden II55680
Ladd McConkey46560
Quentin Johnston46531
Keenan Allen25410
Tre Harris22180
Tucker Fisk11120
Kimani Vidal0100
KeAndre Lambert-Smith0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward12/2114500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard10565.60
Tyjae Spears7263.70
Cam Ward263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elic Ayomanor36460
Tyjae Spears33360
Van Jefferson14210
Gunnar Helm11150
Tony Pollard12120
Chig Okonkwo22100
Chimere Dike1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.6%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-3.16