Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.063
- 47.3%Success rate45.7%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.0%Explosive rate11.6%
- +3.58CPOE+3.45
- 45.5%Third-down rate39.4%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.99Points / drive1.99
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 3-9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 24/38 | 329 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 16 | 32 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 8 | 118 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 8 | 97 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/29 | 312 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 6 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35