Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Titans
- OutQuinton SpainGKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAaron WallaceLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDelanie WalkerTEGroin· DNP
- QuestionableRashad JohnsonSNeck· Limited
- DNPAntonio AndrewsRBNot Injury Related
Chargers
- OutCraig MagerCBConcussion· DNP
- OutHunter HenryTEKnee· DNP
- OutJatavis BrownLBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulDenzel PerrymanLBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulJahleel AddaeSCollarbone· Limited
- DoubtfulJeremiah AttaochuLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTravis BenjaminWRKnee· Full
- QuestionableTyrell WilliamsWRKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| TEN | Q1 10:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q1 8:55 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| TEN | Q1 4:11 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LAC | Q1 2:09 | 7 | 88 | Touchdown | 0–16 |
| TEN | Q2 14:18 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–16 |
| LAC | Q2 11:14 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 7–16 |
| TEN | Q2 6:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–16 |
| LAC | Q2 5:13 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 7–16 |
| TEN | Q2 2:35 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| LAC | Q2 2:24 | 5 | 10 | Field goal | 7–19 |
| TEN | Q2 1:32 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–19 |
| LAC | Q2 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–19 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–19 |
| LAC | Q3 12:19 | 17 | 58 | Touchdown | 21–26 |
| TEN | Q3 5:28 | 6 | 11 | Opp touchdown | 21–33 |
| TEN | Q3 2:31 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–33 |
| LAC | Q3 0:17 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 21–33 |
| TEN | Q4 12:50 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 28–33 |
| LAC | Q4 9:51 | 6 | 62 | Field goal | 28–36 |
| TEN | Q4 6:05 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 28–43 |
| TEN | Q4 4:51 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 35–43 |
| LAC | Q4 2:45 | 6 | 61 | End of half | 35–43 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 27/43 | 313 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Antonio Andrews | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 6 | 10 | 63 | 2 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 4 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 7 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.74
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.