Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 27/43 | 313 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Antonio Andrews | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 6 | 10 | 63 | 2 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 4 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 7 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.74
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.