2018 · Week 7

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

19·20

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LAC -6.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapChargers
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.126
  • 42.6%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.094EPA / rush+0.001
  • 9.3%Explosive rate12.5%
  • +1.50CPOE+3.54
  • 40.0%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
  • 1.83Points / drive2.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 12–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LAC are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9LAC @ TEN27–20CHARGERS
2024 · W10TEN @ LAC17–27CHARGERS
2023 · W2LAC @ TEN24–27TEN
2022 · W15TEN @ LAC14–17CHARGERS
2019 · W7LAC @ TEN20–23TEN
2016 · W9TEN @ SD35–43CHARGERS
2013 · W3SD @ TEN17–20TEN
2012 · W2TEN @ SD10–38CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–LAC
TENQ1 15:001055Field goal3–0
LACQ1 9:44175Touchdown3–7
TENQ1 9:3533Punt3–7
LACQ1 6:55967Field goal3–10
TENQ1 1:48750Field goal6–10
LACQ2 12:51534Punt6–10
TENQ2 9:4217100Turnover6–10
LACQ2 0:2911End of half6–10
LACQ3 15:00375Touchdown6–17
TENQ3 13:46742Touchdown13–17
LACQ3 9:43521Punt13–17
TENQ3 5:38417Punt13–17
LACQ3 3:561356Field goal13–20
TENQ4 12:29834Missed field goal13–20
LACQ4 8:21616Punt13–20
TENQ4 4:551489Touchdown19–20
LACQ4 0:3100End of half19–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota24/3223711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis13917.00
Marcus Mariota7385.40
Derrick Henry12332.81
David Fluellen122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tajae Sharpe791010
Dion Lewis66640
Derrick Henry22320
Luke Stocker22111
Jonnu Smith23110
Corey Davis37100
Taywan Taylor1280
Cameron Batson1100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers19/2630620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler12423.50
Mike Williams133.00
Justin Jackson231.50
Philip Rivers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyrell Williams441181
Keenan Allen55720
Mike Williams13551
Austin Ekeler57260
Travis Benjamin11130
Antonio Gates23110
Justin Jackson11110
Virgil Green0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.04