Closing spread
LAC -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.126
- 42.6%Success rate47.0%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.094EPA / rush+0.001
- 9.3%Explosive rate12.5%
- +1.50CPOE+3.54
- 40.0%Third-down rate39.7%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
- 1.83Points / drive2.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LAC are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 24/32 | 237 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 13 | 91 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 |
| David Fluellen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajae Sharpe | 7 | 9 | 101 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 19/26 | 306 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Williams | 4 | 4 | 118 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 55 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04