Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
43
Model margin
+1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 3-9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 23/37 | 299 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 19 | 90 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 5 | 68 | 13.6 | 1 |
| Jackie Battle | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 8 | 10 | 131 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 6 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Preston | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.