Closing spread
LAC -8
Total
40
Model margin
+1.8est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play+0.044
- 40.4%Success rate42.3%
- -0.056EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.079
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.11CPOE+1.69
- 38.0%Third-down rate40.1%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.35Points / drive2.25
- 3.0%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LAC are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 18/23 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 9 | 84 | 2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Bryce Oliver | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 14/18 | 164 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 2 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.82