2006 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 73°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
37
Model margin
-0.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.072
- 40.9%Success rate45.5%
- +0.034EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.024
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -2.46CPOE+3.73
- 38.5%Third-down rate49.3%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.58Points / drive2.18
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 18/33 | 197 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 19/38 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 20 | 94 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Tyson Thompson | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.97
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.79