Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
33
Model margin
-3.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.197
- 40.5%Success rate38.3%
- +0.108EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.231
- 7.0%Explosive rate6.4%
- +3.00CPOE+3.75
- 42.7%Third-down rate34.0%
- 50.8%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.57Points / drive1.01
- 2.2%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 23/41 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 21/33 | 298 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Wright | 15 | 31 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.3%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.28