Closing spread
PIT -2
Total
42
Model margin
+3.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play+0.004
- 45.3%Success rate43.1%
- +0.138EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- +5.38CPOE+1.04
- 36.8%Third-down rate43.2%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.98Points / drive1.68
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 18/26 | 193 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 19 | 47 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/39 | 208 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 31 | 133 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.73