Closing spread
DET -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.112
- 40.0%Success rate42.6%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.242
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -5.72CPOE+0.25
- 38.9%Third-down rate33.0%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.28Points / drive1.48
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/36 | 340 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 22 | 63 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 25/40 | 342 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.24