Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.153
- 42.5%Success rate51.4%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.294
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.043
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.26CPOE+4.70
- 39.0%Third-down rate56.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.59Points / drive2.54
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 7:31 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:09 | 9 | 41 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 0:41 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 14:44 | 5 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 11:42 | 14 | 56 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| IND | Q2 2:47 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 0:37 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–7 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q3 11:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| IND | Q3 9:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q3 8:51 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 7–14 |
| IND | Q3 7:11 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q3 5:33 | 8 | 34 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| IND | Q3 0:49 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q4 12:57 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–14 |
| IND | Q4 11:53 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| JAX | Q4 8:30 | 12 | 49 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| IND | Q4 3:32 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 14–21 |
| JAX | Q4 1:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| IND | Q4 0:44 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 16/28 | 107 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 13 | 103 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 1 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/31 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.50
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.06