Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
43
Model margin
+3.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.075
- 45.6%Success rate40.2%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.95CPOE-1.93
- 38.8%Third-down rate37.5%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.77Points / drive1.49
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 14:46 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:09 | 2 | 15 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 12:39 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 10:49 | 8 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NYG | Q1 6:54 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q1 5:49 | 4 | 27 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| NYG | Q1 4:12 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–21 |
| SEA | Q1 2:26 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–21 |
| NYG | Q1 0:17 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–21 |
| SEA | Q2 12:29 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–21 |
| NYG | Q2 10:43 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| SEA | Q2 10:36 | 12 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| NYG | Q2 5:27 | 3 | 42 | Turnover | 0–28 |
| SEA | Q2 3:48 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–35 |
| NYG | Q2 0:45 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 3–35 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–35 |
| SEA | Q3 13:16 | 17 | 65 | Touchdown | 3–42 |
| NYG | Q3 3:18 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 10–42 |
| SEA | Q4 13:35 | 6 | 8 | Turnover | 16–42 |
| NYG | Q4 9:46 | 1 | 25 | Touchdown | 17–42 |
| SEA | Q4 9:41 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 24–42 |
| SEA | Q4 9:30 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 24–42 |
| NYG | Q4 6:11 | 9 | 94 | Touchdown | 30–42 |
| SEA | Q4 2:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 30–42 |
| NYG | Q4 0:22 | 2 | 38 | End of half | 30–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/36 | 275 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 24/33 | 227 | 5 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 47 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 15 | 18 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08