Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.091
- 43.0%Success rate39.6%
- +0.117EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.088
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.03CPOE-0.50
- 42.8%Third-down rate33.3%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.67Points / drive1.43
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/33 | 296 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 8 | 117 | 14.6 | 2 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 27/46 | 293 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.72