Closing spread
SF -8.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.010
- 41.8%Success rate45.8%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- -4.93CPOE-1.74
- 36.0%Third-down rate39.6%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 1.61Points / drive2.03
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 18/28 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Killins Jr. | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Fulgham | 2 | 3 | 57 | 1 |
| Greg Ward | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| John Hightower | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Adrian Killins Jr. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 18/26 | 200 | 1 | 2 |
| C.J. Beathard | 14/19 | 138 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 38 | 38.0 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 15 | 15 | 183 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
39.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.66