2020 · Week 4

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

25·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SF -8.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge map49ers
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.010
  • 41.8%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.106
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -4.93CPOE-1.74
  • 36.0%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.03
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 9–7 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsSF @ PHI23–19SF
2023 · W13SF @ PHI42–19SF
2022 · playoffsSF @ PHI7–31PHI
2021 · W2SF @ PHI17–11SF
2017 · W8SF @ PHI10–33PHI
2014 · W4PHI @ SF21–26SF
2011 · W4SF @ PHI24–23SF
2010 · W5PHI @ SF27–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SF
PHIQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:3839Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:52528Turnover0–0
SFQ1 10:12414Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:54961Touchdown8–0
SFQ1 3:51675Touchdown8–7
PHIQ1 0:2132Punt8–7
SFQ2 14:0959Punt8–7
PHIQ2 11:27741Punt8–7
SFQ2 7:03766Turnover8–7
PHIQ2 2:40535Punt8–7
SFQ2 1:03418End of half8–7
SFQ3 15:001275Touchdown8–14
PHIQ3 8:261562Field goal11–14
SFQ3 0:55524Punt11–14
PHIQ4 12:543-5Punt11–14
SFQ4 10:443-3Turnover11–14
PHIQ4 9:58845Touchdown18–14
SFQ4 5:5010Opp touchdown25–14
SFQ4 5:421370Touchdown25–20
PHIQ4 2:023-4Punt25–20
SFQ4 1:40860Turnover on downs25–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz18/2819311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders13463.50
Carson Wentz7375.31
Jalen Hurts3186.00
Corey Clement231.50
Boston Scott210.50
Adrian Killins Jr.1-12-12.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Fulgham23571
Greg Ward47380
Richard Rodgers34350
Miles Sanders24300
John Hightower22220
Zach Ertz4590
Adrian Killins Jr.1120

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens18/2620012
C.J. Beathard14/1913800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon14543.91
Brandon Aiyuk13838.01
Deebo Samuel Sr.11010.00
George Kittle188.00
Jeff Wilson362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle15151831
Jerick McKinnon78430
Deebo Samuel Sr.33350
Kendrick Bourne36330
Brandon Aiyuk25180
Jeff Wilson11130
Trent Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

39.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.66