Closing spread
SF -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play+0.061
- 51.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.106
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.007
- 13.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.51CPOE+3.86
- 48.1%Third-down rate47.5%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.69Points / drive2.30
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/27 | 314 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 4 | 116 | 2 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 26/45 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2/3 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 13 | 114 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 9 | 11 | 96 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.86