2025 · WC

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

23·19

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapEagles
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.034
  • 48.5%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.047
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +5.72CPOE+3.26
  • 50.4%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 2.48Points / drive2.11
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 9–7 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SF @ PHI42–19SF
2022 · playoffsSF @ PHI7–31PHI
2021 · W2SF @ PHI17–11SF
2020 · W4PHI @ SF25–20PHI
2017 · W8SF @ PHI10–33PHI
2014 · W4PHI @ SF21–26SF
2011 · W4SF @ PHI24–23SF
2010 · W5PHI @ SF27–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–PHI
SFQ1 15:00676Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 11:511063Touchdown7–6
SFQ1 6:1637Punt7–6
PHIQ1 5:01720Turnover on downs7–6
SFQ1 1:2933Punt7–6
PHIQ1 0:081699Touchdown7–13
SFQ2 6:08559Field goal10–13
PHIQ2 2:5036Punt10–13
SFQ2 1:51941End of half10–13
PHIQ3 15:0037Punt10–13
SFQ3 13:29836Turnover10–13
PHIQ3 10:2246Punt10–13
SFQ3 8:1731Punt10–13
PHIQ3 7:22923Field goal10–16
SFQ3 2:11567Touchdown17–16
PHIQ4 14:5247Punt17–16
SFQ4 13:15313Turnover17–16
PHIQ4 11:55732Field goal17–19
SFQ4 8:001161Touchdown23–19
PHIQ4 2:541044Turnover on downs23–19
SFQ4 0:4000End of half23–19

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy18/3126222
Jauan Jennings1/12910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey15483.20
Brock Purdy9242.70
Skyy Moore133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demarcus Robinson671111
Christian McCaffrey68662
Jauan Jennings13450
Jake Tonges13140
George Kittle1260
Malik Turner0100
Luke Farrell0100
Skyy Moore0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts20/3516810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley261064.10
Tank Bigsby4194.80
Jalen Hurts5142.80
Dallas Goedert111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith811700
Dallas Goedert47331
Saquon Barkley36250
A.J. Brown37250
Darius Cooper1190
Will Shipley1160
Jahan Dotson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.90