Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.034
- 48.5%Success rate43.3%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.047
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- +5.72CPOE+3.26
- 50.4%Third-down rate37.5%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 2.48Points / drive2.11
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 18/31 | 262 | 2 | 2 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1/1 | 29 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 7 | 111 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 66 | 2 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 20/35 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 26 | 106 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 8 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Darius Cooper | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.90