Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.100
- 46.1%Success rate47.9%
- +0.171EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.021EPA / rush+0.072
- 10.7%Explosive rate11.3%
- -1.99CPOE+2.05
- 45.1%Third-down rate46.2%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.20Points / drive2.43
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 7/13 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4/4 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 84 | 5.6 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | -9 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/25 | 121 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.23
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.02