2022 · CON

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

7·31

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

-0.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapEagles
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.100
  • 46.1%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.021EPA / rush+0.072
  • 10.7%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -1.99CPOE+2.05
  • 45.1%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.20Points / drive2.43
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 9–7 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsSF @ PHI23–19SF
2023 · W13SF @ PHI42–19SF
2021 · W2SF @ PHI17–11SF
2020 · W4PHI @ SF25–20PHI
2017 · W8SF @ PHI10–33PHI
2014 · W4PHI @ SF21–26SF
2011 · W4SF @ PHI24–23SF
2010 · W5PHI @ SF27–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001166Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 9:48625Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 6:5636Punt0–7
SFQ1 4:50311Punt0–7
PHIQ1 2:18411Punt0–7
SFQ1 0:09511Punt0–7
PHIQ2 13:003-4Punt0–7
SFQ2 11:15646Touchdown7–7
PHIQ2 8:291767Touchdown7–14
SFQ2 1:36211Turnover7–14
PHIQ2 1:11420Touchdown7–21
SFQ2 0:16213End of half7–21
SFQ3 15:00624Punt7–21
PHIQ3 11:4333Punt7–21
SFQ3 10:4730Punt7–21
PHIQ3 8:331572Touchdown7–28
SFQ3 0:43923Turnover on downs7–28
PHIQ4 10:52816Field goal7–31
SFQ4 5:1740Turnover7–31
PHIQ4 4:05414End of half7–31

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson7/137400
Brock Purdy4/42300
Christian McCaffrey0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey15845.61
George Kittle144.00
Josh Johnson221.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.6-9-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.36330
George Kittle34320
Christian McCaffrey44220
Brandon Aiyuk11100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts15/2512100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenny Gainwell14483.40
Miles Sanders11423.82
Jalen Hurts11393.51
Boston Scott6213.51
Gardner Minshew2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith23360
A.J. Brown48280
Kenny Gainwell23260
Dallas Goedert56230
Jack Stoll1150
Miles Sanders1130
Zach Pascal0100
Quez Watkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.23
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.02