Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.053
- 40.8%Success rate47.0%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.077
- -0.091EPA / rush+0.010
- 9.0%Explosive rate12.1%
- -0.45CPOE+0.41
- 29.6%Third-down rate42.0%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.87Points / drive1.91
- 1.0%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/33 | 291 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 15 | 127 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 3 | 65 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 30/46 | 416 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 8 | 75 | 9.4 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 9 | 171 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 7 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 3 | 55 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 9 | 34 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.78