2011 · Week 4

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

24·23

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

PHI -9.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapEagles
  • -0.009EPA / play+0.053
  • 40.8%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.077
  • -0.091EPA / rush+0.010
  • 9.0%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -0.45CPOE+0.41
  • 29.6%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.91
  • 1.0%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 9–7 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsSF @ PHI23–19SF
2023 · W13SF @ PHI42–19SF
2022 · playoffsSF @ PHI7–31PHI
2021 · W2SF @ PHI17–11SF
2020 · W4PHI @ SF25–20PHI
2017 · W8SF @ PHI10–33PHI
2014 · W4PHI @ SF21–26SF
2010 · W5PHI @ SF27–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:30765Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 11:21314Turnover0–0
SFQ1 10:1433Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:36676Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 4:08857Field goal3–7
PHIQ2 14:22566Field goal3–10
SFQ2 12:0834Punt3–10
PHIQ2 10:34752Turnover3–10
SFQ2 7:0334Punt3–10
PHIQ2 6:00956Field goal3–13
SFQ2 1:521-2Turnover3–13
PHIQ2 1:32523Touchdown3–20
SFQ2 0:38422End of half3–20
SFQ3 15:00542Missed field goal3–20
PHIQ3 11:44425Field goal3–23
SFQ3 9:30480Touchdown10–23
PHIQ3 7:2038Punt10–23
SFQ3 5:30577Touchdown17–23
PHIQ3 2:58769Missed field goal17–23
SFQ4 13:5763Punt17–23
PHIQ4 11:451275Missed field goal17–23
SFQ4 6:28862Touchdown24–23
PHIQ4 3:00743Turnover24–23
SFQ4 2:06526End of half24–23

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/3329120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore151278.51
Kendall Hunter9384.20
Alex Smith1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree59680
Josh Morgan33651
Kendall Hunter25620
Vernon Davis46451
Delanie Walker33200
Frank Gore22120
Kyle Williams1140
Ted Ginn0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick30/4641621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick8759.40
LeSean McCoy9182.00
Ronnie Brown3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson691710
Jeremy Maclin711740
Jason Avant68690
Clay Harbor33551
LeSean McCoy69341
Brent Celek1420

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.78