Closing spread
SF -3
Total
49
Model margin
+1.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.061
- 45.5%Success rate46.4%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.024EPA / rush+0.025
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.5%
- +1.73CPOE+0.39
- 40.6%Third-down rate45.5%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 2.30Points / drive2.39
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 22/30 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 12/23 | 190 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 82 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 117 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63