Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.029
- 43.7%Success rate42.6%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.167
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.9%
- -0.76CPOE-2.41
- 44.2%Third-down rate40.5%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.44
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 21/43 | 195 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 15 | 57 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 17/30 | 218 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 24 | 119 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 58 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 55 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.07