2014 · Week 4

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

21·26

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge map49ers
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.029
  • 43.7%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.167
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -0.76CPOE-2.41
  • 44.2%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.44
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 9–7 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsSF @ PHI23–19SF
2023 · W13SF @ PHI42–19SF
2022 · playoffsSF @ PHI7–31PHI
2021 · W2SF @ PHI17–11SF
2020 · W4PHI @ SF25–20PHI
2017 · W8SF @ PHI10–33PHI
2011 · W4SF @ PHI24–23SF
2010 · W5PHI @ SF27–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SF
PHIQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:373-10Opp touchdown7–0
SFQ1 12:191684Field goal7–3
PHIQ1 3:32619Punt7–3
SFQ1 1:31575Touchdown7–10
PHIQ2 14:45512Punt7–10
SFQ2 13:0437Opp touchdown14–10
SFQ2 12:02524Opp touchdown21–10
SFQ2 8:4938Punt21–10
PHIQ2 7:14717Punt21–10
SFQ2 4:39745Field goal21–13
PHIQ2 0:59635Turnover21–13
SFQ2 0:0200End of half21–13
SFQ3 15:00422Punt21–13
PHIQ3 12:4627Turnover21–13
SFQ3 12:15918Touchdown21–20
PHIQ3 8:0635Punt21–20
SFQ3 6:49536Field goal21–23
PHIQ3 3:3328Turnover21–23
SFQ3 2:56831Punt21–23
PHIQ4 13:5338Punt21–23
SFQ4 12:401061Field goal21–26
PHIQ4 6:351590Turnover on downs21–26
SFQ4 1:5038Punt21–26
PHIQ4 1:235-4Turnover21–26
SFQ4 0:4000End of half21–26

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles21/4319502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy10171.70
Darren Sproles144.00
Nick Foles111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin415570
Riley Cooper68540
Zach Ertz46430
Jordan Matthews47280
Brad Smith11110
Darren Sproles2420
Brent Celek0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick17/3021821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore241195.00
Colin Kaepernick7588.30
Carlos Hyde10262.60
Bruce Ellington11515.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin57620
Frank Gore12551
Michael Crabtree58430
Brandon Lloyd25280
Steve Johnson12121
Derek Carrier12100
Vernon Davis2380
Carlos Hyde0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.07