Closing spread
PHI -13
Total
45
Model margin
+3.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.051
- 41.2%Success rate43.3%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.27CPOE+0.38
- 39.5%Third-down rate42.0%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.75Points / drive2.12
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 17/36 | 167 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Trent Taylor | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 4 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Cole Hikutini | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 18/32 | 211 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Clement | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.32