2017 · Week 8

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

10·33

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PHI -13

Total

45

Model margin

+3.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapEagles
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.051
  • 41.2%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.27CPOE+0.38
  • 39.5%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.12
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 9–7 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsSF @ PHI23–19SF
2023 · W13SF @ PHI42–19SF
2022 · playoffsSF @ PHI7–31PHI
2021 · W2SF @ PHI17–11SF
2020 · W4PHI @ SF25–20PHI
2014 · W4PHI @ SF21–26SF
2011 · W4SF @ PHI24–23SF
2010 · W5PHI @ SF27–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–PHI
SFQ1 15:00623Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:42735Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:4438Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:261147Field goal0–3
SFQ1 2:3638Punt0–3
PHIQ1 1:3331Punt0–3
SFQ2 14:5137Punt0–3
PHIQ2 12:4936Punt0–3
SFQ2 11:04316Turnover0–3
PHIQ2 9:413-2Punt0–3
SFQ2 7:2548Punt0–3
PHIQ2 4:42732Touchdown0–9
SFQ2 1:5133Opp touchdown0–17
SFQ2 1:24733End of half0–17
PHIQ3 15:00413Punt0–17
SFQ3 13:1033Punt0–17
PHIQ3 11:4637Punt0–17
SFQ3 10:1630Punt0–17
PHIQ3 9:26519Field goal0–20
SFQ3 8:0139Punt0–20
PHIQ3 5:433-4Turnover0–20
SFQ3 4:43221Touchdown7–20
PHIQ3 4:29375Touchdown7–27
SFQ3 3:371266Missed field goal7–27
PHIQ4 14:00847Touchdown7–33
SFQ4 10:221133Field goal10–33
PHIQ4 5:20730End of half10–33

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard17/3616712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Beathard6406.70
Carlos Hyde12252.10
Matt Breida5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Breida46391
Trent Taylor33330
Garrett Celek12240
Carlos Hyde49220
George Kittle24220
Pierre Garcon24170
Cole Hikutini11100
Aldrick Robinson0200
Marquise Goodwin0300
Kendrick Bourne0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz18/3221121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Clement10545.40
LeGarrette Blount16483.01
Carson Wentz273.50
Wendell Smallwood155.00
Nick Foles2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery28621
Zach Ertz46341
Mack Hollins23300
Nelson Agholor33260
Trey Burton22210
Brent Celek12140
Kenjon Barner22110
Wendell Smallwood1290
LeGarrette Blount1140
Torrey Smith0200
Corey Clement0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.32